Skip Navigation

Logic Journal of IGPL 2007 15(5-6):401-420; doi:10.1093/jigpal/jzm032
This Article
Right arrow Abstract Freely available
Right arrow Full Text (PDF)
Right arrow Alert me when this article is cited
Right arrow Alert me if a correction is posted
Services
Right arrow Email this article to a friend
Right arrow Similar articles in this journal
Right arrow Alert me to new issues of the journal
Right arrow Add to My Personal Archive
Right arrow Download to citation manager
Right arrowRequest Permissions
Google Scholar
Right arrow Articles by Borges, W.
Right arrow Articles by Stern, J. M.
Right arrow Search for Related Content
Social Bookmarking
 Add to CiteULike   Add to Connotea   Add to Del.icio.us  
What's this?

© The Author, 2007. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oxfordjournals.org

The Rules of Logic Composition for the Bayesian Epistemic e-Values

Wagner Borges

CCH, Mackenzie Presbiterian University. E-mail: wborges{at}mackenzie.com.br

Julio Michael Stern

IME, University of São Paulo, Brazil. E-mail: jstern{at}ime.usp.br

In this paper, the relationship between the e-value of a complex hypothesis, H, and those of its constituent elementary hypotheses, Hj, j = 1... k, is analyzed, in the independent setup. The e-value of a hypothesis H, ev(H), is a Bayesian epistemic, credibility or truth value defined under the Full Bayesian Significance Testing (FBST) mathematical apparatus. The questions addressed concern the important issue of how the truth value of H, and the truth function of the corresponding FBST structure M, relate to the truth values of its elementary constituents, Hj, and to the truth functions of their corresponding FBST structures Mj, respectively.

Key Words: Bayesian models • Belief Calculi • Complex hypotheses • Compositionality • Convolution • Epistemic values • Possibilistic and Probabilistic reasoning • Significance tests • Truth functions.

Received for publication 21 June 2006.

References

  1. Abe JM, Avila BC, Prado JPA. Multi-Agents and Inconsistence (1998) ICCIMA'98. 131–142. 2nd International Conference on Computational Intelligence and Multimidia Applications: Traralgon, Australia.

  2. Alcantara J, Damasio CV, Pereira LM. Paraconsistent Logic Programs. JELIA-02. 8th European Conference on Logics in Artificial Intelligence. Lecture Notes in Computer Science (2002) 2424:345–356.

  3. Arieli O, Avron A. Reasoning with Logical Bilattices. Journal of Logic, Language and Information (1996) 5:25–63.

  4. Barlow RE, Prochan F. Statistical Theory of Reliability and Life Testing Probability Models. (1981) Silver Spring. To Begin With.

  5. Basu D, Ghosh JK. Statistical Information and Likelihood. Lecture Notes in Statistics (1988) 45.

  6. Birnbaum ZW, Esary JD, Saunders SC. Multicomponent Systems and Structures, and their Reliability. Technometrics (1961) 3:55–77.[CrossRef][ISI]

  7. Costa NCA. Calculs Propositionnels pour les Systemes Formales Incosistants. Compte Rendu Acad. des Scienes, (1963) 257:3790–3792.

  8. Costa NCA, Subrahmanian VS. Paraconsistent Logics as a Formalism for Reasoning about Inconsistent Knowledge Bases. Artificial Inteligence in Medicine (1989) 1:167–174.[CrossRef]

  9. Costa NCA, Vago CA, Subrahmanian VS. Paraconsistent Logics Ptt. Zeitschrift für Mathematische Logik und Grundlagen der Mathematik (1991) 37:139–148.[CrossRef][ISI]

  10. Costa NCA, Abe JM, Subrahmanian VS. Remarks on Annotated Logic. Zeitschrift für Mathematische Logik und Grundlagen der Mathematik (1991) 37:561–570.[ISI]

  11. Costa NCA, Abe JM, Murolo AC, da Silva JI, Casemiro CFS. Lógica Paraconsistente Aplicada (1999) São Paulo: Atlas.

  12. Cozman FG. Generalizing Variable Elimination in Bayesian Networks (2000) Proceedings of the Workshop in Probabilistic Reasoning in Artificial Inteligence: Atibaia.

  13. Darwiche AY, Ginsberg ML. A Symbolic Generalization of Probability Theory (1992) AAAI-92. 10-th Conf. American Association for Artificial Intelligence.

  14. Darwiche AY. A Symbolic Generalization of Probability Theory (1993) Ph.D. Thesis, Stanford Univ.

  15. Dugdale JS. Entropy and Its Physical Meaning (1996) Taylor & Francis.

  16. Evans M. Bayesian Inference Procedures Derived via the Concept of Relative Surprise. Communications in Statistics (1997) 26:1125–1143.

  17. Evans M, Swartz T. Approximating Integrals via Monte Carlo and Deterministic Methods (2000) Oxford University Press.

  18. vonFoerster H. Understanding Understanding: Essays on Cybernetics and Cognition (2003) NY: Springer Verlag. The following articles in this anthology are of special interest: (a) On Self-Organizing Systems and their Environments; pp 1–19. (b) On Constructing a Reality; pp 211–227. (c) Objects: Tokens for Eigen-Behaviors; pp 261–271. Also in: B.Inhelder, R.Gracia, and J.Voneche (1987). Hommage a Jean Piaget: Epistémologie Génétique et Equilibration. Paris: Delachaux et Niestlé. (d) For Niklas Luhmann: How Recursive is Communication? pp 305–323.

  19. Gaskins RH. Burdens of Proof in Modern Discourse. (1992) Yale Univ. Press.

  20. Gelman A, Carlin JB, Stern HS, Rubin DB. Bayesian Data Analysis. (1995) London: Chapman and Hall.

  21. George A, Gilbert JR, Liu JWH. Graph Theory and Sparse Matrix Computations. (1993) NY: Springer.

  22. Gilks WR, Richardson S, Spiegelhalter DJ. Markov Chain Monte Carlo in Practice. (1996) NY: CRC Press.

  23. Good IJ. Good Thinking. (1983) e>Univ. of Minnesota.

  24. Häggström O. Finite Markov Chains and Algorithmic Applications. (2002) e>Cambridge Univ.

  25. Irony TZ, Lauretto M, Pereira CAB, Stern JM. A Weibull Wearout Test: Full Bayesian Approach. In: Systems and Bayesian Reliability—Hayakawa Y, Irony T, Xie M, eds. (2002) 287–300. Quality, Reliability & Engineering Statistics, 5, Singapore: World Scientific.

  26. Jensen FV. Bayesian Networks and Decision Graphs. (2001) NY: e>Springer.

  27. Kadane JB, Winkler RL. De Finetti's Methods of Elicitation (1987) In Viertl (1987).

  28. Kaplan S, Lin C. An Improved Condensation Procedure in Discrete Probability Distribution Calculations. Risk Analysis (1987) 7:15–19.[CrossRef][ISI]

  29. Kapur JN. Maximum Entropy Models in Science and Engineering. (1989) NY: e>Wiley.

  30. Klir GJ, Folger TA. Fuzzy Sets, Uncertainty and Information. (1988) NY: Prentice Hall.

  31. Kokott J. The Burden of Proof in Comparative and International Human Rights Law. (1998) Hague: Kluwer.

  32. Lauretto M, Pereira CAB, Stern JM, Zacks S. Full Bayesian Significance Test Applied to Multivariate Normal Structure Models. Brazilian Journal of Probability and Statistics (2003) 17:147–168.

  33. Lauretto M, Stern JM. FBST for Mixture Model Selection. MaxEnt 2005, 24th International Workshop on Bayesian Inference and Maximum Entropy Methods in Science and Engineering. American Institute of Physics Conference Proceedings (2005) 803:121–128.

  34. Macdonald RP. Factor Analysis and Related Methods. (1985) London: LEA.

  35. Madruga MR, Esteves LG, Wechsler S. On the Bayesianity of Pereira-Stern Tests. Test (2001) 10:291–299.[CrossRef][ISI]

  36. Madruga MR, Pereira CAB, Stern JM. Bayesian Evidence Test for Precise Hypotheses. Journal of Statistical Planning and Inference, (2003) 117:185–198.[CrossRef][ISI]

  37. Pearl J. Causality: Models, Reasoning, and Inference. (2000) e>Cambridge University Press.

  38. Pereira CAB, Lindley DV. Examples Questioning the use of Partial Likelihood. The Statistician (1987) 36:15–20.[CrossRef]

  39. Pereira CAB, Stern JM. A Dynamic Software Certification and Verification Procedure. Proc. ISAS-99, Int.Conf.on Systems Analysis and Synthesis, (1999) 2:426–435.

  40. Pereira CAB, Stern JM. Evidence and Credibility: Full Bayesian Significance Test for Precise Hypotheses. Entropy Journal (1999) 1:69–80.

  41. George EI. Full Bayesian Significance Tests for Coefficients of Variation. In: Bayesian Methods with Applications to Statistics (2001) 391–400. Monographs of Official Statistics, EUROSTAT.

  42. Pereira CAB, Stern JM. Model Selection: Full Bayesian Approach. In: Environmetrics (2001) 12:559–568.[CrossRef][ISI]

  43. Pereira CAB, Wechsler S. On the Concept of p-value. In: Brazilian Journal of Probability and Statistics (1993) 7:159–177.

  44. Pereira CAB, Wechsler S, Stern JM. Can a Significance Test be Genuinely Bayesian? Submitted. (2005).

  45. Pflug GC. Optimization of Stochastic Models: The Interface Between Simulation and Optimization (1996) Boston: Kluwer.

  46. Piaget J. Equilibration of Cognitive Structures: The Central Problem of Intellectual Development. (1985) e>Univ.of Chicago.

  47. Rouanet H, Bernard JM, Bert MC, Lecoutre B, Lecoutre MP, LeRoux B. New Ways in Statistical Methodology. From Significance Tests to Bayesian Inference. (1998) Berne: Peter Lang.

  48. Royall R. Statistical Evidence: A Likelihood Paradigm (1997) London: Chapman & Hall.

  49. Rubin H. A Weak System of Axioms for ‘Rational" Behaviour and the Non-Separability of Utility from Prior. Statistics and Decisions (1987) 5:47–58.

  50. Springer MD. The Algebra of Random Variables. (1979) NY: Wiley.

  51. Stern JM. Significance Tests, Belief Calculi, and Burden of Proof in Legal and Scientific Discourse. 1st Bayesian Modeling Applications Workshop, UAI'03, and Laptec'03. 4th Cong. Logic Applied to Technology. Frontiers in Artificial Intelligence and its Applications (2003) 101:139–147.

  52. Stern JM. Paraconsistent Sensitivity Analysis for Bayesian Significance Tests. SBIA'04. In: Lecture Notes Artificial Intelligence (2004) 3171:134–143.

  53. Stern JM. Cognitive Constructivism, Eigen-Solutions, and Sharp Statistical Hypotheses. Presented at FIS-2005, Third Conference on the Foundations of Information Science. Cybernetics & Human Knowing (2005) 2007(14):9–36.

  54. Stern JM. Language and the Self-Reference Paradox. In: Technical Report MAC-2006-02 (2006) Institute of Mathematics and Statistics, University of São Paulo. To appear in Cybernetcs & Human Knowing, 2007, 14.

  55. Stern JM. Decoupling, Sparsity, Randomization and Objective Bayesian Inference. In: Technical Report MAC-2006-07 (2006) Institute of Mathematics and Statistics, University of São Paulo. To appear in Cybernetics and Human Knowing.

  56. Stern JM. Language, Metaphor and Metaphysics: The Subjective Side of Science. In: Technical Report MAC-2006-09 (2006) Institute of Mathematics and Statistics, University of São Paulo.

  57. Stern JM, Zacks S. Testing Independence of Poisson Variates under the Holgate Bivariate Distribution. Statistical and Probability Letters (2002) 60:313–320.[CrossRef]

  58. Stern JM, Zacks S. Sequential Estimation of Ratios, with Applications to Bayesian Analysis. In: Technical Report MAC-2003-10 (2003) Institute of Mathematics and Statistics, University of São Paulo.

  59. Williamson RC. Probabilistic Arithmetic. (1989) e>Univ. of Queensland.

  60. Wittgenstein L. Tractatus Logico Philosophicus. (Logisch-Philosophische Abhandlung). (Ed.1999) (1921) NY: Dover.

  61. Zadeh LA. Fuzzy Sets and Applications (1987) NY: Wiley.


Add to CiteULike CiteULike   Add to Connotea Connotea   Add to Del.icio.us Del.icio.us    What's this?



This Article
Right arrow Abstract Freely available
Right arrow Full Text (PDF)
Right arrow Alert me when this article is cited
Right arrow Alert me if a correction is posted
Services
Right arrow Email this article to a friend
Right arrow Similar articles in this journal
Right arrow Alert me to new issues of the journal
Right arrow Add to My Personal Archive
Right arrow Download to citation manager
Right arrowRequest Permissions
Google Scholar
Right arrow Articles by Borges, W.
Right arrow Articles by Stern, J. M.
Right arrow Search for Related Content
Social Bookmarking
 Add to CiteULike   Add to Connotea   Add to Del.icio.us  
What's this?